T he other day, I was talking to a friend who asked me about the direction of markets and what could happen post-Budget. Not that I was interested in predicting specific levels, I said, "if people are too happy for too long, that itself is the biggest risk." As it goes on, keeping people happy for too long, can turn into a national disaster, much like other disasters where ultimately the government is blamed. The Dangers of Overconfidence Among the investing legends, I have lot of liking for Howard Marks and his insights about human behaviour, market cycles and many other things like second order thinking and going against the crowd. In his recent memo he writes (Mo st interesting lines in my view), The adage "success is a dangerous neighbour" is particularly relevant in investing. When individual...
R eading about a company, I was thrilled to discover its immense potential for growth. The business boasted a strategic position, a vast pool of opportunity, a reputable promoter, significant capital injection, and a doubling of production capacity – all the makings of a winner. Wow! I found my next multi-bagger. But hold on! Examining the share price and valuation quickly deflated my enthusiasm. Isn't this a common occurrence these days? There's an overemphasis on the "top-down" approach, with little regard for the actual price. This relentless pursuit of the next big idea, sector, or company has eroded the valuable investing principles we learned from Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett. It's a gr...
Eight common behavioural mistakes in a bull market What really matters is the balance of mind and behaviour particularly during times of exuberance in the markets where stocks tend to run ahead of fundamentals. While behavioural fallacies are common in all kind of markets, here are a few that need a serious check in a bull market. Jitendra Kumar Gupta @jitendra1929 The famous economist John Maynard Keynes once said, “Markets can remain irrational longer than one remains solvent”, guessing the levels of the markets could turn out to be a futile exercise and one that could cause damage. However, what really matters is the balance of mind and behaviour particularly during times of exuberance in the markets where stocks tend to run ahead of fundamentals. While behavioural fallacies are common in all kind of markets, here are a few that need a serious check in a bull market. Every time just after I sell a stock it makes a new high. Let me buy it again If one recollect...
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