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Market Euphoria: Too Happy for Too Long
T he other day, I was talking to a friend who asked me about the direction of markets and what could happen post-Budget. Not that I was interested in predicting specific levels, I said, "if people are too happy for too long, that itself is the biggest risk." As it goes on, keeping people happy for too long, can turn into a national disaster, much like other disasters where ultimately the government is blamed. The Dangers of Overconfidence Among the investing legends, I have lot of liking for Howard Marks and his insights about human behaviour, market cycles and many other things like second order thinking and going against the crowd. In his recent memo he writes (Mo st interesting lines in my view), The adage "success is a dangerous neighbour" is particularly relevant in investing. When individual...
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