Ajit Dayal

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Market Euphoria: Too Happy for Too Long

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T he  other day, I was talking to a friend who asked me about the direction of markets and what could happen post-Budget. Not that I was interested in predicting specific levels, I said, "if people are too happy for too long, that itself is the biggest risk." As it goes on, keeping people happy for too long, can turn into a national disaster, much like other disasters where ultimately the government is blamed.                                                    The Dangers of Overconfidence Among the investing legends, I have lot of liking for Howard Marks and his insights about human behaviour, market cycles and many other things like second order thinking and going against the crowd.  In his recent memo he writes (Mo st interesting lines in my view), The adage "success is a dangerous neighbour" is particularly relevant in investing. When individuals achieve financial success, they often attribute it to superior skill and knowledge. This overconfi dence can lead to
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Knowledge Compounding: Why it is better to be foolish at the start than at the finish

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  W e are probably at the fourth stage of the market where being in the quality stocks is curse, they are no longer producing returns because they are fully discovered. Investors are now bidding for low quality, unloved, undiscovered stocks. This marks the phase of the market where investors begin to compromise on quality and the fundamental principles of investing in favor of chasing the next big stock.     They start disregarding quality in pursuit of higher returns. This herd mentality leads to a strong bullish phase in low-quality stocks. Novice investors, or so-called alpha-riders, become the new authorities in the market.   This reminds me about the wisdom that Vijay Kedia shared with us few years back, “In good times everything looks rosy particularly for the first-time investors who have not seen the market cycles and hence beat the drums. Bull markets produce many self-claimed genius or stock pickers but in reality, the real stock market genius are bornin the bear
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Knowledge Compounding: Wow! I found my next multi-bagger stock.

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R eading about a company, I was thrilled to discover its immense potential for growth. The business boasted a strategic position, a vast pool of opportunity, a reputable promoter, significant capital injection, and a doubling of production capacity – all the makings of a winner. Wow! I found my next multi-bagger.                                               But hold on! Examining the share price and valuation quickly deflated my enthusiasm. Isn't this a common occurrence these days? There's an overemphasis on the "top-down" approach, with little regard for the actual price.   This relentless pursuit of the next big idea, sector, or company has eroded the valuable investing principles we learned from Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett.   It's a growth frenzy, but where's the margin of safety? Everything is validated in the name of growth and the current political and economic climate, as if there's no possibility of things going wrong.   Howev
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