Jitendra Kumar Gupta's blog

In the Paradox of Buridan's Ass: A donkey placed precisely midway between a stack of hay and a pail of water dies of both hunger and thirst because it cannot make a rational decision to choose one over the other.   In investing, "analysis paralysis" often leads to missed opportunities. A "good enough" decision executed in time (like buying a quality stock at a fair price) is infinitely better than a "perfect" decision made too late. This paradox is the investor's ultimate trap. We endlessly scrutinize balance sheets, read every analyst report, and wait for the "perfect" market pullback that never comes. While we chase the mirage of absolute certainty, the market moves on. The hay (growth) gets eaten by others, and the water (value) evaporates.    Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing, taught that "the investor’s chief problem—and even his worst enemy—is likely to be himself." Graham didn't advocate for the ...

Last Sunday, I did a deep dive into an important concept called Invest-con , introduced by Howard Marks. It’s a crucial idea that can help you navigate market cycles more effectively. Below are my notes on what I read, studied, and found particularly interesting.  Howard Marks uses the term "INVEST-CON" in his investment philosophy to describe different levels of investment readiness, inspired by the Pentagon's DEF-CON system for military alertness. In his recent memos (especially "The Calculus of Value"), Marks laid out a 6-stage "INVEST-CON" hierarchy for navigating overheated markets and extreme valuations.             The Six Stages of INVEST-CON 1. Go Short: This is the most aggressive and risky stage, where an investor actively bets against the market by short-selling assets. Marks considers this a near-impossible stage to implement with any certainty, as it requires the conviction that a market downturn is imminent.   2. Eliminate All Hold...

  S tudy before you invest. Research a company's fundamentals and business model. A well-researched investment is a conviction, while a hunch is a gamble. H ave a long-term perspective. True wealth is built over many years, not days. Focus on compounding, not daily market swings. R emember risk and reward are tied. Higher returns come with greater risk. Invest within your personal risk tolerance. E xpect volatility. Market fluctuations are normal. View downturns as opportunities to buy, not reasons to panic sell. E xamine your own biases. Be aware of how emotions and cognitive biases can sabotage your rational decisions. G rasp the power of compounding. Start early and stay consistent. Compounding allows your money to grow exponentially over time. A lways diversify your portfolio. Spread investments across different sectors and asset classes to protect against severe losses. N avigate the cycles of the market. Understand that markets have booms and busts. Use this knowledge to your...

E veryone knows the success story of Google. Its co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin are considered to be the best minds with outstanding business capabilities who built the world’s most valuable company. The mantra of their success and lessons they offer are equally useful. Here is what I learned reading about them.  • One doesn’t need formal education to be successful. Just take advice and learn from successful people. • Think big; Think long-term. Google is a by-product of big-picture thinking and a long-term vision.  Many products and solutions that Google offers today, or will be offering in future, were merely imaginary or impossible when they were conceived. In the backyards of Google, the teams were working on many of these futuristic ideas, thinking big with a long-term vision. • Believe in your idea even though you may not have the resources. The biggest success stories in the world such as Google, Amazon and Microsoft started in a garage.  Success will ev...

O f course, I know why. But here’s a thought — just like brushing keeps our teeth healthy, daily reading and learning is must. Without it, our mental faculties can decay. Forced Learning is one of the techniques that I use, to foster reading and learning. I think most of us are not learning enough. Procrastination. Distractions. Excuses. You name it. Want to read and learn more? Try these simple Forced Learning Strategies : Invest in books: The purchase itself can motivate you to dive in. Keep books in sight: Place them where they'll tempt you – your desk, nightstand, everywhere. Set and track small reading goals: Even 5 pages daily adds up. Seeing progress keeps you going. Make it social: Discuss books with friends or join online communities. Shared accountability helps. Explore short online courses: 10 minutes a day in a brief format can lead to completion (and sometimes a certificate!). Learn on the go: Listen to podcasts or audiobooks while walking, c...