T he other day, I was talking to a friend who asked me about the direction of markets and what could happen post-Budget. Not that I was interested in predicting specific levels, I said, "if people are too happy for too long, that itself is the biggest risk." As it goes on, keeping people happy for too long, can turn into a national disaster, much like other disasters where ultimately the government is blamed. The Dangers of Overconfidence Among the investing legends, I have lot of liking for Howard Marks and his insights about human behaviour, market cycles and many other things like second order thinking and going against the crowd. In his recent memo he writes (Mo st interesting lines in my view), The adage "success is a dangerous neighbour" is particularly relevant in investing. When individual...
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I have read your articles moneycontrol, and on your blog and twitter.
You have a lot of clarity in your thought. It is easy to understand you which means you yourself are very knowledgeable about things you write.
The best part I like about your analysis is that on a wide variety of sectors, you directly come to the critical levers of the business, and back it up by data in your snapshots.
If ever you run your own fund, I will want to know about it.
Pleasure reading you.
Best,
Saket
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